Quantitative Methods Adopted by the Department of Economic Studies of CADE in the Context of Merger Reviews and Anticompetitive Conducts between 2015 and 2025

Abstract

This article assesses the patterns of quantitative analysis within the activities of the Department of Economic Studies (DEE) of the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE) between January 2015 and June 2025. Drawing inspiration from Pires-Alves, Lyra, and Bonfatti (2019) and Lianos and Genakos (2012), the paper identifies and categorizes the methodologies applied by the department in Merger Reviews (ACs) and Administrative Proceedings (PAs) related to anticompetitive conduct, evaluating their influence on CADE’s final decisions. The database was built through public searches in CADE’s Electronic Information System (SEI) and includes only Technical Notes issued by the DEE in concrete cases. A total of 69 cases were mapped, comprising 79 Technical Notes: 19 in Administrative Proceedings (24.6% of the total), 1 in a Fast-track Merger Review (1.4%), and 59 in Ordinary Merger Reviews (73.9%). The results show that the DEE usually combines multiple methodologies, typically being asked to perform descriptive analyses of market structure (entry barriers, degree of rivalry, among others) and the behavior of non-price variables. There is some sensitivity regarding the classification of methodologies, with outcomes varying depending on the reference framework adopted by each author. Nonetheless, frequent use of UPP-family methods (Upward Pricing Pressure), simulations, and vertical arithmetic is observed. Regarding the DEE’s influence on CADE’s decisions, the article applies the score proposed by Lianos and Genakos (2012) (a 1-to-5 scale) and finds a median score of approximately 3.5. The study aims to contribute to the antitrust community’s understanding of the objectives and methodologies commonly present in DEE analyses, offering insights for stakeholders involved or interested in CADE proceedings.