Estimando alíquotas de imposto de importação dado o nível de competitividade relativa do brasil

Abstract

The objective of this article is to propose a methodology based on econometric and machine learning models to estimate import
tax rates that would be expected given Brazil’s relative competitiveness level. Thus, it aims to contribute quantitatively to the debate about the appropriate degree and speed of trade openness processes, considering that there are structural and institutional bottlenecks (or ‘Custo Brasil’) that hinder the business environment and limit the competitiveness of Brazilian industries against foreign competition. The proposed methodology, which can be applied to different sectors and products of interest, uses indicators from the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) as proxies for the competitiveness level of countries. Together with the country’s trade flows for the product of interest, these data constitute the set of covariates that explain the import tariff. This function is calibrated based on the available data between 2017 and 2019 for other countries, and then, it estimates what the tariff would be for Brazil. For
illustrative purposes, this article conducts a case study for the chemical industry, specifically for caustic soda bleach.