Ranking de riscos e oportunidades em comércio trilateral uma análise do comércio entre Brasil, China e EUA

Abstract

This article proposes a ranking to assess risks and opportunities in economic sectors arising from changes in trade among three countries. The analysis focuses on trilateral trade between Brazil, China, and the United States. In light of the escalating trade tensions between the two largest global economies, the article discusses potential opportunities for Brazil’s exports and the risks to imports due to trade diversion resulting from a possible reduction in USA-China trade. The results  show that Brazil’s main opportunities are concentrated in commodities such as sugar and derivatives, ores and slag, and coffee, especially to the Chinese market. In contrast, the risks are more diversified, linked to capital goods (machinery and equipment), intermediate goods (plastics,
steel, chemicals, aluminum), and final goods (toys, sporting goods, and apparel), with potential impacts on the competitiveness of Brazil’s domestic industry